Informa Media Group predicts that Android phones will outstrip iPhone sales by 2012. Here’s the quote…
According to a new report by the Informa Media Group Sony's PS3 will outsell Xbox 2 by roughly three to one. Informa Media Group believes Sony will sell more than 32 million PS3s in Europe by 2010, while Microsoft's Xbox 2 will trail with 10 million sales and Nintendo will be left behind both companies with just five million sales of the 'Cube's successor.
Oh wait, I’m sorry. That’s a quote from 2003 where they predicted the PS3 would sell 3 times more than the Xbox 360 and that Nintendo would trail behind both of them. For the record, current sales have the PS3 at 21 Million, the Xbox 360 at 28 million and the Nintendo Wii at a whopping 45 million.
But anyway, back to the Android story. Here’s the quote…
Informa predicts games industry worth USD 58.4 billion by 2007
Informa Telecoms and Media has revealed details of its fifth Dynamics of Games report, suggesting massive growth for the games industry - spearheaded by next generation consoles and broadband gaming.
The report suggests that the entire games industry will be worth USD 35.3 billion in 2005, which is an increase of 5.3 percent on last year. The staggered release of the next generation of games consoles, which begins with Microsoft's Xbox 360 in November, is predicted as the main catalyst for an unprecedented leap in market growth.
Oh, I’m sorry. That’s an article from 2005 when Informa predicted the Game industry would be worth 58.4 billion dollars by 2007. The actual number was a still respectable $41.9 billion. Here’s the Android quote…
The iPhone's lead over smartphone upstart Android may be short-lived, according to an industry watcher's predictions.
Android smartphone sales will outstrip iPhone sales by 2012, market researcher Informa Telecoms & Media has predicted in a new report.
I don’t necessarily mean to pick on Informa here, though they are a small firm using a sensational headline which makes it a little suspicious.
Still, my real point is that predictions like this are largely pointless when it comes to technology. No one knows what’s coming down the pike and any one of those things could turn everything upside down (the Wii’s success for example).
If you feel you must trust a prediction make sure you ask questions about the methodology. In the above example I don’t see how they could have developed a methodology that would give weight to their predictions.
How exactly do you extrapolate sales on an industry with practically no historical precedent (consumer smartphones)? What data are they using exactly? I mean, there’s only one Android phone and it’s been out for less than half a year. How do you get from that to outselling the iPhone?
Anyway, all those questions bring me back to my original point. These predictions just can’t be trusted.